MIGUEL GUTIERREZ/EPA/LANDOV
IT IS AN old rule of statecraft: do not put a gun on the table unless you are prepared to use it. In the Caribbean Sea, America has placed not one gun but many. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest and most advanced warship ever built, has been dispatched to the coast of Venezuela, accompanied by three missile-armed destroyers. Some 15,000 American military personnel are now within striking distance of the South American country. Long-range bombers fly along its coastline; special-operations helicopters practise nearby. The mission, dubbed “Southern Spear”, is the biggest American military deployment in the region since the cold war. Yet almost no one can say what it is for.
The official explanation is drugs. American officials describe Venezuela’s government as a “narco-terrorist” enterprise. President Donald Trump says he wants to interdict the flow of narcotics. Yet the scale of the deployment bears little relation to this goal. Venezuela is not a primary conduit for drugs into the United States; Mexico and Colombia matter more. An aircraft carrier is a dangerous tool for chasing small, fast boats, a task normally left to coastguard cutters. America has already conducted some 20 strikes on such vessels, killing at least 80 people. Legal experts question the operation’s basis in international law. Allies including Britain fret that their intelligence may enable extrajudicial killings.
Behind the scenes, some American officials speak of using military pressure to force Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, from power. Mr Maduro has been indicted in America on drug-trafficking charges; he leads what prosecutors call the “Cartel of the Suns”, named for the insignia worn by high-ranking Venezuelan officers. He has reportedly offered America favourable terms for access to Venezuela’s oil reserves, the largest on Earth. Mr Trump cut off those talks and escalated militarily instead.
Venezuela has taken the threat seriously. Its armed forces are on high alert. Mr Maduro frames the stand-off as a patriotic struggle against American imperialism, a narrative that may bolster his unpopular regime. Both sides have their weapons cocked. A stray missile or a botched special-operations raid could trigger a cycle of escalation. When neither side has a clear exit strategy, small incidents can lead to a large war.
America’s allies are alarmed and confused. No one understands the strategic objective. Some fear the United States is reviving a muscular Monroe Doctrine, a 19th-century policy that declared the Western Hemisphere its exclusive sphere of influence. Others worry about the global implications. The Ford was meant to deter Iran in the Middle East; its departure has created a power vacuum. China is watching closely, noting that American attention has drifted away from Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific. An open-ended confrontation in the Caribbean would stretch American military resources and diplomatic credibility.
The most troubling aspect of the crisis is its strategic vacuum. American officials offer contradictory accounts of their goals. Some insist the mission is solely about drugs; others hint at regime change. A senior European official says Washington is “raising the temperature” to see if Mr Maduro buckles. Mr Trump says he has “sort of” made up his mind, but will not say about what. This ambiguity creates a dangerous game. The United States is acting with overwhelming force but without clear purpose. Venezuela is preparing for a war it cannot avoid. History suggests that such mismatched expectations often lead to miscalculation. ■