IMAGE: TJT
Editor’s update: Takaichi Sanae, a nationalist security hawk, won the leadership of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, defeating Agriculture Minister Koizumi Shinjiro in a run-off.
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is a master of political survival. For most of the post-war era it has governed almost uninterrupted, more a state institution than a party. Yet survival has meant periodic reinvention: a reshuffle here, a generational facelift there. The party now faces another such moment. Having lost its majority in both chambers of parliament and seen two electoral defeats in succession, the prime minister, Ishiba Shigeru, resigned in September, less than a year into the job. On October 4th LDP members will choose his successor—and with it, Japan’s next prime minister.
The field is crowded, but two contenders dominate. Koizumi Shinjiro, a telegenic 44-year-old agriculture minister and son of a former prime minister, would be Japan’s youngest post-war leader. His rival, Takaichi Sanae, a 64-year-old hardliner, could become its first female one. Between them lies an ideological chasm: Mr Koizumi styles himself a moderniser, Ms Takaichi a nationalist revivalist.
The choice comes at a low ebb for the LDP. Its campaign slogan, “CHANGE, LDP!”, has been greeted online with derision—“The LDP cannot change” runs a popular riposte. Polls show public frustration with falling real wages, which have tumbled for seven consecutive months. Inflation has sapped household savings, and fiscal stimulus and corporate subsidies appear to benefit firms more than workers. The opposition remains weak—the Constitutional Democratic Party inspires little confidence—but the rise of Sanseito, a populist, anti-immigration outfit that has jumped from two to 15 seats in the upper house, signals a shift in the electorate’s mood. Its brash online presence highlights how easily the LDP has lost touch with voters it once considered secure.
Mr Koizumi’s pitch is understated. Having been burned in 2024 by accusations of youthful arrogance, he now speaks of “necessary reforms” without much detail. His moderation is as much tactic as conviction: by avoiding provocation, he hopes to recast the LDP as a big-tent party capable of appealing to disillusioned younger voters without alienating its greying base. On immigration—an issue on which Sanseito has thrived—he has toughened his rhetoric but is milder than Ms Takaichi, who rails against foreign “misbehaviour” even though immigrants make up a mere 3% of Japan’s population.
Ms Takaichi, by contrast, thrives on provocation. A former heavy-metal drummer from Nara who idolises Margaret Thatcher, she built her career in the LDP’s nationalist wing under Abe Shinzo, the assassinated former prime minister. She pledges to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution, expand the military and fortify economic security by funnelling subsidies into strategic industries such as semiconductors and energy. Her “Sanaenomics”—a populist variant of “Abenomics”—combines tax cuts and lavish spending with little concern for Japan’s already daunting public debt (net liabilities stand at 135% of GDP, the highest in the rich world). She once called the Bank of Japan “stupid” for considering rate rises. Markets, sensing fiscal indiscipline, would probably punish her premiership with a weaker yen and higher bond yields.
Her social conservatism is just as firm. Though poised to be the first woman in the job, she opposes separate surnames for married couples and supports male-only succession in the imperial household. She is no feminist symbol. Her base lies in the LDP’s right wing and among grassroots members nostalgic for Abe’s assertive nationalism. In 2024 she won the rank-and-file vote but was blocked in the parliamentary run-off, where lawmakers’ ballots count more. That may happen again. Many LDP grandees consider her too extreme even as they acknowledge her popularity with the party’s foot soldiers.
Whoever wins will inherit more burdens than blessings. The new leader will host Donald Trump in Tokyo later this month, cementing a trade deal under which America trims tariffs in exchange for vague Japanese investment pledges worth $550bn. Relations with China are tense; North Korea has resumed missile tests. At home, a weary electorate expects relief from inflation and a clearer plan for growth. Few expect miracles: even Mr Koizumi’s youth and charisma cannot disguise the sclerosis of Japanese politics, nor can Ms Takaichi’s nationalist fervour conjure sustainable prosperity. The real contest is between a party that promises to modernise but hesitates to do so, and one that embraces defiance even if it scares markets.
Japan’s voters may scoff at the LDP’s slogan, but the stakes are not trivial. The choice between Mr Koizumi and Ms Takaichi will signal whether the party still believes its future lies in moderation or whether it prefers to gamble on nationalist revival. Either way the LDP’s dominance is weakening. Reinvention this time may prove harder than before. ■
