IMAGE VIA PINTEREST
ON SEPTEMBER 16TH Aldar Properties opened sales for Sei Saadiyat, a 265-unit residential project in the Saadiyat Cultural District. Within days the first phase was largely spoken for. The launch followed The Canopies on Yas Island, a six-building community that generated AED 1.5 billion in sales during its debut in early August. Modon’s Tara Park and Golf Estates launches earlier in the year met a similar reception. All this shows that as new off-plan projects arrive, buyers commit within hours and the queue for finished homes grows longer.
That queue is the problem. Abu Dhabi’s residential market has spent 2026 in a state of pre-completion frenzy. Off-plan sales accounted for 82.7 per cent of all residential transactions in the first half, up from 71 per cent for the whole of 2025, according to Cavendish Maxwell.
Off-plan transaction volumes rose 173.5 per cent year-on-year to 12,800 deals, whereas ready-property transactions fell 8.5 per cent to 2,700. The share of ready homes in total sales has collapsed from 38.4 per cent a year ago to 17.3 per cent. Buyers are not choosing off-plan over ready stock, meaning they are choosing the only stock available.
The supply of completed homes has not kept pace with the appetite for them. Abu Dhabi delivered roughly 2,400 residential units in the first quarter and 1,396 in the second, according to Cushman & Wakefield Core. A further 5,679 units are expected by year-end. Against a projected pipeline of 15,900 completions for 2026, actual handovers are likely to land between 6,500 and 9,000, Cavendish Maxwell estimates, a shortfall that reflects construction delays and the cautious pace at which developers release finished stock. The first quarter alone saw just 13.1 per cent of the expected annual pipeline completed.
That shortfall has consequences. Ready-home prices rose 25 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, even as transaction volumes declined 16.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter, a decline ValuStrat attributed largely to the Ramadan and Eid holidays. The average ready sales rate reached AED 15,480 per square metre by the end of March, a modest 2.66 per cent quarterly increase that nonetheless sat on top of a year of steep gains. Off-plan rates, by contrast, jumped 39 per cent in the same quarter to AED 23,067 per square metre. The premium for a finished home over a promise has narrowed sharply, and in some communities it has disappeared.
The rental market is moving in the same direction. Average apartment rents in Abu Dhabi City reached AED 121,500 a year by the first quarter, with citywide occupancy at 88.1 per cent. Active residential lease contracts across the emirate numbered 233,000 by mid-year, with a combined value of AED 9.3 billion, according to the Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre. New apartment lease prices rose 17 per cent year-on-year in the first half, even as the overall rental index showed signs of stabilising. Tenants who cannot find a ready home to buy are competing for a limited pool of rental units. Landlords, until recently, held the upper hand.
That changed on in June, when ADREC announced an immediate freeze on rent increases for all residential, commercial and industrial properties. Renewals are now processed with a zero per cent increase, and previously rented properties must be offered at the same rate as the preceding contract. The measure suspends a provision that allowed landlords to raise rents by up to five per cent annually. Cushman & Wakefield Core reported city-wide rents declining 5 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, the first big quarterly fall in years.
The rent freeze has bought tenants time, but it has not solved the underlying shortage. Developers have responded to the demand signal with a wave of new launches. Some 13,073 units across 43 projects came to market in the first half of 2026, nearly double the 7,019 units launched in the same period a year earlier. Aldar and Modon accounted for more than half of the launch activity, with a clear pivot toward mid-market and end-user products. Modon’s partnership with ADIB, offering up to 75 per cent financing on future off-plan purchases, is meant to widen the pool of buyers who can commit before a foundation is poured.
Those launches will not produce habitable homes for at least two years. The delivery pipeline accelerates sharply from 2027, with roughly 17,300 units projected for completion that year and 26,000 in 2028, according to Cavendish Maxwell. By the end of the decade, approximately 71,000 additional residential units are expected, equivalent to about 17 per cent of the current stock of 409,000 units. The Cushman & Wakefield Core pipeline peaks at 18,440 units in 2028 and 16,545 in 2029. The question is whether demand will absorb supply when it arrives without a correction in prices and rents.
For now, the market is still clearing. City-wide sales prices reached AED 16,368 per square metre in the second quarter, up 22 per cent year-on-year but down 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter, the first quarterly decline since late 2021. Prathyusha Gurrapu, head of research at Cushman & Wakefield Core, described the moderation as a natural cooling rather than a correction, noting that government-backed developers had repositioned toward end-user demand and mid-prime product rather than pulling back amid regional uncertainty. Apartment prices in prime locations such as Saadiyat Island and Al Raha Beach continued to rise, up 18 per cent and 13 per cent respectively, while some villa communities, including Khalifa City and parts of Saadiyat, recorded year-on-year declines of 17 per cent and 9 per cent.
The divergence matters. Abu Dhabi’s property market is becoming increasingly uneven. Ready homes in established communities remain scarce and expensive. Off-plan projects in emerging areas carry the risk of delays, cost overruns and a future supply glut. Investors who bought off-plan at 2026 prices may find themselves competing with thousands of similar units when the 2028 handover wave arrives. Those who hold ready stock in Al Reem, Yas or Saadiyat are sitting on an asset that cannot be replicated quickly. The frenzy for pre-completion product is, in part, a bet that the shortage of finished homes will persist. The pipeline suggests it will not, at least not indefinitely. The shelf is empty now. The question is what happens when it is not. ■
