IMAGE: TJT
The diplomatic temperature in East Asia can be measured by the length of China’s public threats. On November 7th, a Chinese consul-general in Osaka provided a violent metric. Posting on social media, the diplomat warned that if Japan’s “filthy neck” were stuck where it did not belong, it would be “sliced off”. The neck in question belonged, implicitly, to Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s new and first woman prime minister, who had provoked Beijing with a few frank words on Taiwan.
Ms Takaichi is a long-serving, nationalistic veteran of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), taking office late in October this year after her third attempt to secure the party’s leadership. She quickly signalled a resolve for national revival and strength, aligning herself with America by joining President Donald Trump on a visit to a naval base shortly after taking office. Her early political style is one of unflinching work ethic and blunt communication.
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The flashpoint arrived during parliamentary questioning. Ms Takaichi was asked whether a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would qualify as a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. The distinction is critical: under Japan’s postwar pacifist constitution, such a threat is a prerequisite for exercising collective self-defence, or military action in support of an ally. Ms Takaichi replied, without equivocation, that if China used force or warships, it could indeed constitute an existential threat to Japan.
This statement was explosive not for its sentiment—Shinzo Abe had previously hinted at such a posture—but for its directness. It was the most explicit link yet made between Taiwan’s security and the legal justification for Japan’s possible military involvement. Taiwan lies a mere 70 miles from Japanese territory, placing it squarely within Japan’s security calculus. Under Xi Jinping, however, China views Taiwan’s status as a purely domestic matter, and any foreign statement implying defence commitments is seen as a severe breach of protocol and a step toward normalising Japan as a “military great power”.
Beijing’s reaction was rapid and multi-fronted, meant to punish Ms Takaichi in the nascent stages of her premiership. Diplomats in Beijing immediately berated Japan’s ambassador, demanding a retraction and warning of a “crushing defeat” should Japan intervene in a Taiwan conflict. The Osaka consul-general’s threat, though later deleted, forced Japan to summon the ambassador in protest.
Propaganda channels soon joined the diplomatic assault. State media and cartoonists portrayed Ms Takaichi as an Imperial Japanese soldier burning the country’s pacifist constitution, clearly attempting to link her to Japan’s second world war militarism and fire up domestic Chinese nationalism.
Most damagingly, China launched an economic coercion campaign. Chinese citizens were advised against travel to Japan; Chinese tourists account for roughly one-fifth of all visitors to the archipelago. Threats were made to halt imports of Japanese seafood, and Chinese students were warned of “safety risks” in Japan.6 Crucially, hints emerged of restricting exports of critical materials such as rare earths, a tactic China successfully deployed against Japan in 2010 and against South Korea in 2017.
In a show of military displeasure, Chinese navy and coastguard activity surged near the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, a small chain claimed by both Japan and China, and in the Yellow Sea, the stretch of water between China and the Korean peninsula. These movements were labelled “routine” yet their timing betrayed their intent: to exert pressure and demonstrate the consequences of Japan’s new assertiveness. This entire episode fits a Chinese strategic logic: “Kill the chicken to scare the monkey,” punishing Japan to deter Taiwan’s other partners including America.
For Ms Takaichi, the aggressive coercion campaign has delivered an unexpected political benefit at home. China’s bullying has bolstered her domestic legitimacy, pushing her approval ratings to around 70%. Many Japanese citizens support a tougher stance toward China, expressing confidence due to the commitment of the American alliance, with the American ambassador confirming, “We have her back.” Taiwan’s representative also offered support, urging Taiwanese consumers to buy Japanese seafood to negate China’s economic threats.
Yet the situation is still tricky. Ms Takaichi cannot retract her statement without looking weak domestically. However, further escalation risks severe economic damage from Chinese boycotts and the potential cutting of rare earth exports, a crucial element for Japan’s manufacturing sector. She is attempting to tread a narrow line: maintain firmness and refuse a retraction, while avoiding further explicit comments about Taiwan’s defence.
This escalating tempo of tensions is particularly dangerous. It occurs while Mr Xi’s target date for military capability against Taiwan approaches and Taiwan is led by the more defiantly pro-sovereignty president, Lai Ching-te. An important backchannel for diplomatic compromise, previously provided by the LDP’s coalition partner Komeito, has weakened. With China demanding a retraction and Japan politically unable to comply, neither side has an obvious off-ramp. Analysts expect this highly-charged dispute to worsen before it can possibly stabilise. It is a sobering display of the fragility of China-Japan relations amid the inexorable rise of tensions over the Taiwan strait. ■
